SYDNEY – Unmanned Surface Vessel Division One’s (USVDIV-1) unmanned surface vessels (USVs) Ranger, Mariner, Seahawk and Sea Hunter arrived in Sydney, Australia, for a scheduled port visit October 24 ahead of their participation in bilateral exercises with the Royal Australian Navy (RAN).
During the exercises, USVDIV-1 will collaborate with the RAN on testing unmanned systems in concert with industry partners to advance a shared understanding of these capabilities to meet strategic requirements.
“I look forward to furthering the strong relationship our navies have worked hard to create,” said U.S. Navy Commander Jeremiah Daley, commanding officer of USVDIV-1. “Our shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific relies upon developing these advanced capabilities that will create the asymmetric warfighting advantages to deter aggression in contested environments.”
Along with the USVs, the Independence-variant littoral combat ship USS Oakland also arrived in Sydney. All five U.S. Navy vessels are currently employed in the ongoing U.S. Pacific Fleet exercise Integrated Battle Problem (IBP) 23.2 to develop concepts of operations for future unmanned programs of record and further integrated USVs into routine operations alongside manned surface combatants.
“In order to develop a program as different and disruptive as small, medium, and large USVs, integrating with allies and partners early and consistently in its development is key to our success,” said Daley. “Through exercises like IBP 23.2 and Autonomous Warrior, we continue to learn from experience in an operational theater and deepen our interoperable strength.”
USVDIV-1’s mission is to test, evaluate and operate in support of integrating USVs into fleet operations and provide recommendations to Navy leadership on the development of unmanned systems.
U.S. 7th Fleet is the U.S. Navy’s largest forward-deployed numbered fleet, and routinely interacts and operates with allies and partners in preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Vigilant returns from Caribbean patrol after interdicting 5,600 pounds of illicit drugs
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – The crew of the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Vigilant (WMEC 617) returned home to Cape Canaveral, Tuesday, following a 29-day patrol in the Central Caribbean and Florida Straits.
Patrolling in support of Joint Interagency Task Force-South, Vigilant worked alongside other Coast Guard cutters, Department of Defense and Department of Homeland Security units, and international partners to conduct counter-drug operations.
During the patrol, Vigilant’s crew disrupted illegal narcotics smuggling, interdicting more than 5,600 pounds of illicit drugs. While in theater, Vigilant interdicted five drug-smuggling vessels and apprehended eight suspected traffickers, contributing directly to U.S. Coast Guard objectives to combat transnational criminal organizations.
Vigilant operated as the Central Tasking Unit coordinating international and other asset movement to interdict suspected drug smuggling vessels, which strengthened ties with international partners and promoted regional stability and security.
In addition, Vigilant rescued 12 Cuban migrants in an unseaworthy vessel 120 nautical miles south of Cuba. Once aboard Vigilant, the crew provided the migrants with food, water, shelter, and medical aid until they were repatriated.
“I’m extremely proud of our crew and the important lifesaving and critical counter-narcotic missions that we were able to perform on this patrol,” said Cmdr. Jon Potterton, the commanding officer of Vigilant. “It was excellent that we were able to strengthen our domestic and international partnerships and work together to make the world a safer place.”
Vigilant is a 210-foot Reliance-class medium endurance cutter. The cutter’s primary missions are counter-drug operations, migrant interdiction, enforcement of federal fishery laws, and search and rescue in support of U.S. Coast Guard operations. The medium endurance cutters fall under the command of the U.S. Coast Guard Atlantic Area. Based in Portsmouth, Virginia, U.S. Coast Guard Atlantic Area oversees all Coast Guard operations east of the Rocky Mountains to the Arabian Gulf. In addition to surge operations, Atlantic Area also allocates ships to deploy to the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific to combat transnational organized crime and illicit maritime activity.
For information on how to join the U.S. Coast Guard, visit GoCoastGuard.com to learn about active duty, reserve, officer, and enlisted opportunities. Information on how to apply to the U.S. Coast Guard Academy can be found here.
CORAS Wins Contract with the United States Naval Academy Leadership, Education, and Development Division
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MCLEAN, Va. – October 24, 2023: CORAS is proud to announce a contract with the United States Naval Academy (USNA) to develop and deliver a mobile-enabled application for its Leadership, Education, and Development (LEAD) Division. The mobile application requirement was envisioned and spearheaded by Captain Kevin Mullaney, USN, Ph.D., the Course Director and Leadership, Ethics, and Law department chair for the USNA. Named the Leaders Compass, the application is created through research in leadership development, decision-making, and moral psychology, and delivers a competency support framework for Midshipmen leader development across the institution.
“We are honored to support the US Naval Academy and its mission to cultivate the next generation of DoD Leaders,” said CORAS President and CTO Dan Naselius. “Aggregating data from all the USNA scoring areas into a mobile-enabled tracking format makes it possible for every Midshipman and Faculty to see how they are performing and growing – the familiar tracker format delivers a complete user experience and ensures buy-in at all levels. It is exciting to see how Navy and Marine Corps future leaders will be interacting with data in this way from the onset of their careers.”
“One of the advantages of the Leaders Compass system is that it integrates the entire developmental experience for Midshipmen across the 47-month journey at the Naval Academy,” CAPT Mullaney said. “We are fortifying the future fleet of officers by providing purposeful development in conjunction with assessments, making the data that we collect actionable and giving students access to robust developmental resources and curated experiences with the Naval Academy’s faculty and leadership.”
The Leaders Compass supports the assessment of Midshipmen in four (4) key areas: academic, professional/leadership development, physical, and competencies. It allows Midshipmen to track coursework and grades, chart performance in classes and training exercises, engage with coaches and faculty, and follow assigned work and goal progression. Peer review provides 360-degree feedback on leadership behaviors and relationship management. The Leaders Compass offers complete transparency and a level of engagement that keeps Midshipmen focused on their leadership journey from day one.
USNA faculty and staff also benefit from the Leaders Compass application. They have access to Midshipmen data on the scope and effectiveness of classes, training, development, GPA, Scores, materials, and events. On a comprehensive level, it also gathers collective data to assess and gauge program performance and effectiveness.
CORAS is already at work in the Department of Defense (DoD), managing an array of disparate data sources and bringing real-time interaction, data modeling, and predictive artificial intelligence (AI) to federal civilian and military agencies. CORAS manages some of the largest business challenges through proprietary solutions that offer flexibility to work with existing programs with proven business processes and no data lock-in. CORAS’ Enterprise SaaS solution manages the US Navy’s digital POM and supports various S&T portfolios and contracts that use data to solve complex business challenges. CORAS’ privately-owned solutions allow it to be an open data company that supports the preparation and readiness of data for AI and machine learning (ML) as well as putting teams in place that can gather the data and run models against it.
Alakai Defense Systems Awarded $30.7 Million Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division Contract
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Alakai to provide multiple checkpoint explosive detection systems
TAMPA BAY, Fl.—October 24, 2023— Alakai Defense Systems Inc. announced that it was awarded a $30.7 million contract with the U.S. Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division to provide multiple Checkpoint Explosive Detection Systems (CPEDS) as well as required training and product support.
Alakai Defense Systems’ CPEDS is an extreme standoff range explosive detection system. CPEDS is used for Entry Point Security and performs detection and identification of bulk, residue and trace quantities of explosives, homemade explosives, chemical warfare agents, toxic industrial chemicals and narcotics. CPEDS can be used for defense, security, and law enforcement applications. The system can be operated remotely, further isolating the operator from the threat chemicals or any potential blast radius.
CPEDS employs deep UV Raman spectroscopic detection methodologies to identify real-time threats. With expertise in laser-based sensing, threat sensing technology (UV, Vis, & IR), Alakai’s products feature patented, proprietary eye-safety technology.
“Our military and allies increasingly face dangerous, life-threatening environments,” explained Ed Dottery, President and CEO, Alakai Defense Systems. “I remain passionate in my mission to save lives and limbs from harm and our CPEDs provide some of the most advanced explosive detection technology ever developed to safeguard our Nation’s defenders.”
The contract was awarded on August 17, 2023, in support of the Naval Air Systems Command’s Security Cooperation Office. Work is to be completed by February 2027.
About Alakai Defense Systems Alakai Defense Systems, Inc. is a small, veteran owned high-tech company specializing in laser and electro-optical standoff threat detection sensors for defense & security applications. Founded in 2003, Alakai’s ongoing work includes research and development of laser-based trace material detection technologies for U.S. government agencies. For more information, visit www.alakaidefense.com or contact Alakai at [email protected].
Crowley Moves to Launch First-Ever LNG Bunkering at Panama Canal’s Pacific Side
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(JACKSONVILLE, Fla.; Oct. 24, 2023) – Global shipping and sustainable energy logistics leader Crowley is proceeding with plans to provide liquefied natural gas (LNG) bunkering services on the Pacific side of the Panama Canal, under the first permit issued by the Panama Maritime Authority (AMP) for the provision of such services.
Crowley’s advanced energy group will operate the innovative service to manage the ship-to-ship LNG transfer services. With a potential start date in 2024, Crowley is preparing to provide bunkering and related port solutions to safely deliver lower-emission LNG to vessels for fuel and cryogenic tank cooldown services at the canal.
“LNG is widely accepted as the most practical transitional alternative fuel for maritime shipping and to stay ahead of the rapid deployment of LNG-powered ships across the global market, Crowley is strategically growing its LNG bunkering operations across North and Central America,” said James Fowler, senior vice president and general manager, Crowley Shipping. “The Panama Canal will become a key location for vessels to take on LNG, and Crowley’s future Panamanian bunkering service will give international ship owners confidence to continue to adopt LNG across their fleets.”
A leader in U.S. LNG supply chain and engineering services, the Panama Canal location expands Crowley’s LNG solutions. In 2014, Crowley received the first small-scale LNG export license from the U.S. Department of Energy for LNG transportation from the U.S. into Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and Non-Free Trade (NFTA) countries. The company then pioneered small scale LNG transportation and engineering to Puerto Rico.
Crowley’s services expanded in 2022 with the opening of an LNG truck-loading terminal in Peñuelas, Puerto Rico. A 12,000 m3 (3.17 million gallons) LNG bunker barge, the largest in the U.S, is under construction with a long-term charter agreement with Shell to begin service in 2024 for ships on the U.S. East Coast.
Crowley has served Central America including Panama for more than 60 years with maritime and logistics services.
U.S. Navy Awards Bollinger Shipyards Contract to Build 4 Additional Mine Countermeasures Unmanned Surface Vessels
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Award builds upon Bollinger’s growing autonomous portfolio
LOCKPORT, LA. — (October 23, 2023) – The U.S. Navy has awarded Bollinger Shipyards (“Bollinger”), a privately-held and leading designer and builder of military and commercial vessels, a contract to build four (4) additional Mine Countermeasures Unmanned Surface Vessels (MCM USV). This brings the total number of vessels under contract up to seven (7), with options for up to 18 more vessels.
“Bollinger is honored to be entrusted by the U.S. Navy to continue building the Mine Countermeasures Unmanned Surface Vessel program,” said Ben Bordelon, President and CEO of Bollinger Shipyards. “Our skilled workforce is second to none. We are proud to support and protect the men and women of the U.S. Navy with state-of-the-art, multi-mission unmanned surface vessels that can operate in the most challenging conditions.”
Bollinger was first awarded the contract to build the MCM USV program in April 2022. The MCM USV is an autonomous vessel capable of supporting minesweeping, mine hunting, and mine neutralization missions. Naval mines present a significant threat to U.S. naval operations and to U.S. and allied shipping in coastal waters, continental shelf waters, port approaches, and straits. The MCM USV program is key to replacing capabilities currently being undertaken by soon to be retired MCM-1 class Mine Countermeasures Ships and MH-53E helicopters.
Bollinger will continue to build the MCM USV program at Bollinger Shipyards’ Lockport, Louisiana, facility.
U.S. Coast Guard strengthens historic relationship with Philippines during landmark visit to Tacloban
TACLOBAN, Philippines — In a historic first, the USCGC Frederick Hatch (WPC 1143) visited partners in Tacloban, Philippines, from Oct. 19 to 23, 2023, and the crew conducted engagements marking a significant milestone in the enduring relationship between the United States and the Philippines.
This visit of several days coincided with the observance of the Battle of Leyte Gulf, a crucial event in World War II history where U.S. Coast Guardsmen were a significant part of the U.S. forces and among the first to hit the beaches as the U.S. sought to retake the Philippines.
“We are deeply honored to be part of this observance and to strengthen the bond between the United States and the Philippines,” said Lt. Patrick Dreiss, commanding officer of the USCGC Frederick Hatch. “It is a privilege to bring a U.S. Coast Guard Fast Response Cutter to the Philippines for the first time and to visit the historic city of Tacloban. My crew was excited to collaborate with the Philippine Coast Guard to deepen our connections with our fellow seagoing Service and explore this unique city and island.”
An advance team from U.S. Coast Guard District 14 and U.S. Coast Guard Forces Micronesia/Sector Guam held planning meetings in collaboration with the U.S. Embassy to prepare for this visit and the Battle of Leyte Gulf observance. Discussions revolved around mutual capabilities, training opportunities, and community engagement, part of the Coast GGuard’sOperation Blue Pacific mission.
While in Tacloban, the crew, with support from the Maritime Security Response Team West, hosted a subject matter expert exchange on maritime law enforcement with Philippine Coast Guard colleagues, observed the 79th Leyte Gulf Landing Anniversary, hosted local school children and government officials, held working meetings, and experienced the culture of the Eastern Visayas region of the Philippines.
“The expanded capabilities of the Fast Response Cutter represent more than just advanced technology; they symbolize the bridge of cooperation and goodwill between nations. The FRCs and their dedicated crews regularly play a pivotal role in international diplomacy. These vessels, along with their highly trained and professional crews, are ambassadors of peace and collaboration, said Capt. Nick Simmons, commander of U.S. Coast Guard Forces Micronesia/Sector Guam. “They foster understanding and trust across borders, making the seas safer not only for our own nations but for all nations that rely on the freedom of navigation and maritime security.”
This visit is part of the USCGC Frederick Hatch’s regularly scheduled expeditionary patrol as part of the ongoing Operation Blue Pacific. It follows previous interactions between the U.S. Coast Guard and the Philippine Coast Guard, including the recent arrival of the USCGC Stratton (WMSL 752) in Manila for professional exchanges and joint operations.
The visit of Pacific Area commander Vice Adm. Andrew Tiongson in April to discuss shared challenges and opportunities for partnership further exemplifies the U.S. Coast Guard’s commitment to the region. The Service’s role as a federal law enforcement agency and an armed forces branch uniquely positions the agency’s teams to conduct security cooperation operations supporting combatant commanders, upholding governance, and ensuring regional stability. Through Operation Blue Pacific, an overarching multi-mission Coast Guard endeavor, the Service seeks to promote security, safety, sovereignty, and economic prosperity in Oceania while strengthening relationships between partner nations in the Pacific.
The Tacloban visit underscores the shared strategic efforts toward a stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific and aligns with the Pacific Area Commander’s goals to prepare a ready force, generate combined effects, and uphold governance. It also supports U.S. Coast Guard District 14 and U.S. Coast Guard Forces Micronesia/Sector Guam’s commitment to be a trusted partner in Oceania and deliver operational excellence.
DOD Aims to Publish 1st National Defense Industrial Strategy
By December, the Defense Department hopes to issue its first-ever National Defense Industrial Strategy, which will be followed by DOD’s implementation plan, said Laura D. Taylor-Kale, assistant secretary of defense for industrial base policy.
Taylor-Kale, who spoke yesterday at the 2023 Defense Conference, was confirmed by the Senate in March as the first assistant secretary of defense for industrial base policy.
She advises the undersecretary of defense and other senior defense leaders on all matters pertaining to industrial base resilience, workforce development, innovation, investment and policy. And, she also is shepherding the strategy’s development.
That strategy will focus on creating a clear road map for how the department will prioritize and modernize the U.S. industrial base, she said.
“We’ve seen in the response to COVID and the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East that our industrial ecosystem needs to be ready to provide the capabilities … that the department needs,” Taylor-Kale said.
The goal, she said, is to work in partnership with industry, with the inter-agencies, with Congress and with allies and partners to make defense industrial policy work much more smoothly and strategically, she said.
“This strategy is meant to catalyze a generational change that will guide the department’s focus and policy development and programs and investment in the industrial base for the next three-to-five years,” she said.
The key areas of the strategy, she said, are:
Creating resilient supply chains
Having an industrial base that can produce capabilities, services and technologies that are needed at speed, scale and cost
Ensuring workforce readiness and development
Delivering flexible acquisitions
Building in metrics for measurable outcomes
Taylor-Kale said her office hopes to attract new, innovative, non-traditional companies into the industrial base, particularly those that connect dual-use technologies with the emerging needs of the warfighter.
“I want to emphasize that the task before us is really critical. Creating a modern defense industrial ecosystem will take all of us working together. Please come to us with your ideas. We want to partner with you. I want to partner with you to make this work. We in government cannot do this alone. And frankly, we’re not trying to do this alone,” she said, speaking to industry representatives in attendance.
DOD Responds to Attacks, Continues Efforts to Deter Spread of Israel-Hamas War
DOD assets in the Red Sea, Iraq and Syria responded to missile and drone attacks over the past two days, as U.S. service members look to deter groups from using the Israel-Hamas war as an opportunity to launch conflict that could engulf the region, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said today.
Ryder also spelled out the steps Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III has taken to strengthen DOD posture in the region to bolster regional deterrence efforts.
Ryder said the crew of the guided missile destroyer USS Carney operating in the northern Red Sea earlier today shot down three land attack cruise missiles and several drones launched by Houthi forces in Yemen. “This action was a demonstration of the integrated air and missile defense architecture that we built in the Middle East and that we are prepared to utilize whenever necessary to protect our partners and our interests,” he said.
There were no casualties.
“We cannot say for certain what these missiles and drones were targeting, but they were launched heading north along the Red Sea potentially towards targets in Israel,” the general said.
Ryder also detailed drone attacks on U.S. facilities in Syria and Iraq. The al-Tanf garrison in Syria was targeted by two drones on Oct. 18. “U.S. and coalition forces engaged one drone destroying it while the other drone impacted the base resulting in minor injuries to coalition forces,” Ryder said. All of the injured returned to duty.
At the same time, early warning systems indicated a possible threat approaching the airbase at al-Assad. Base personnel sheltered in place as a protective measure. “Though no attack occurred, sadly, a U.S. civilian contractor suffered a cardiac episode while sheltering and passed away shortly thereafter,” Ryder said.
Separately in northern Iraq, U.S. forces engaged and destroyed a drone resulting in no injuries or damage.
Ryder said he will not detail what the American response to these provocations will be. “I will say that we will take all necessary actions to defend U.S. and coalition forces against any threat,” he said. “Any response, should one occur, will come at a time in a manner of our choosing.”
Ryder said U.S. forces deployed to the region are meant to deter any government or group from launching attacks under cover of the Israeli-Hamas war. The USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group is crossing the Atlantic to join the Ford. The Air Force has also bumped up fighter presence to the region.
“By posturing these U.S. naval assets and advanced fighter aircraft in the region, we aim to send a strong message intended to deter a wider conflict, to bolster regional stability, and, of course, to make it clear that we will protect and defend our national security interests,” Ryder said.
Secretary Austin is continuing engagements with counterparts in the region and beyond. Just today, the secretary spoke with officials in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Israel. “During these calls, he reiterated U.S. support for Israel’s right to defend itself from terrorist attacks, and also underscored the importance of safeguarding innocent civilians — both Palestinian and Israeli,” Ryder said.
Finally, Ryder said that systems the Israelis requested continue to flow into the country. These include precision-guided munitions, such as joint direct attack munitions, small-diameter bombs, 155-millimeter artillery ammunition and other categories of critical equipment. In addition, the United States is providing Iron Dome interceptors from stocks the United States has in Israel. In the days ahead, “we’ll be flying additional Iron Dome interceptors so that Israel has the capabilities they need to sustain their defense systems and protect their citizens and from rocket attacks,” Ryder said.
DOD Report Details Chinese Efforts to Build Military Power
The People’s Republic of China is continuing its efforts to overturn the international rules-based order and is building an increasingly effective military to further these aims, said a senior defense official speaking on background.
The official gave reporters a preview of the 2023 China Military Power Report that DOD delivered to Congress today. The annual report to Congress is based on the National Defense Strategy’s premise that China is the only competitor with the intent, will and capability to reshape the international order, said the official. “The 2022 National Defense Strategy identifies the PRC as increasingly capable military as the department’s top pacing challenge,” he said.
The report “charts the current course of the PRC’s national economic and military strategies, and offers insight into the strategy, its current capabilities, some of its operational activities, as well as its future modernization goals,” he said.
Communist leaders seek “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” by 2049 – the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party’s takeover of the world’s largest country.
Part of this effort is China is increasing military coercion, the official said. An example of this is the increasing numbers of unsafe intercepts of U.S., allied and partner vessels and aircraft operating in international air and seaways of the Indo-Pacific region. “Between the fall of 2021 and the fall of 2023, the United States documented over 180 instances of coercive and risky air intercepts against U.S. aircraft in the region,” the official said. When allies and partners are included, this jumps to more than 300 instances.
The report also covers China’s intensifying pressure campaign against Taiwan including Chinese ballistic missile overflights of Taiwan, increased flights into Taiwan’s self-declared air defense identification zone and the large-scale simulated joint blockade and simulated joint firepower strike operations done after a visit to the island by a U.S. congressional delegation.
Additionally, China’s deepening security ties with Russia are covered. In fact, as the official was detailing the content of the report, Chinese President Xi Jinping was meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin at a ceremony marking the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative in China. The senior defense official said China sees its emergence as a great power as tied to the alliance with Russia.
The report also looks at the continued development of the Chinese military’s nuclear, space and cyberspace capabilities. “We see the PRC continuing to quite rapidly modernize and diversify and expand its nuclear forces,” he said. “They are expanding and investing in their land, sea and air-based nuclear delivery platforms, as well as the infrastructure that’s required to support this.”
The report estimates the Chinese had more than 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May 2023. “That is on track to exceed some of our previous predictions,” he said.
China is developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles. These may also be conventionally-armed missiles. “If developed and fielded, such capabilities would allow the PRC to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii and Alaska,” the official said.
According to the report, Chinese leaders are seeking to modernize People’s Liberation Army capabilities in all domains of warfare.
On the land, the PLA continues to modernize its equipment and focus on combined arms and joint training, the official said. The Chinese military is still a conscript force with two intakes a year. The military is working to field long-range fires and incorporate the capability into their doctrine.
At sea, China has the world’s largest navy with a battle force of more than 370 ships and submarines. The Chinese launched their third aircraft carrier in the past year and commissioned their third amphibious assault ship.
The PLA Air Force “is rapidly catching up to western air forces,” the official said. The air force continues to build up manned and unmanned aircraft and the Chinese announced the fielding of the H-6N – its first nuclear-capable, air-to-air refueled bomber.
The Chinese military has not been involved in a shooting war since 1979 and “this actually is one of the shortcomings that the PRC highlights and a lot of their own self assessments,” the official said. “They tried to address that, I think, by attempting to make their training and their exercises more realistic, to more closely approximate … actual combat type conditions.
“I think they tried to address it as well, by learning whatever lessons they can from other countries’ involvement in military conflicts,” he continued.
Chinese military leaders carefully studied military conflicts involving U.S. forces, Russian forces and others over the years. That is one of the key sources they draw upon to better understand how they need to prepare themselves for future combat operations. “Certainly, they’re watching very closely Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine,” the official said.
The Chinese military is looking for bases overseas and looking to develop the resources needed to be a globally relevant force. They have established an overall logistics command and they are working hand-in-glove with the Belt and Road Initiative to gain access.
Finally, the report also discusses the dearth of contacts between U.S. and Chinese defense officials. “The PLA’s refusal to engage in military-to-military communications with the United States, combined with the PLA’s increasingly coercive and risky operational behavior, raises the risk of an operational incident or miscalculation spiraling into crisis or conflict,” the official said.